IMF看好全球经济前景的英语美文(2)

2018-08-15经典美文

  拉詹先生在接受《金融时报》采访时表达了一种新的忧虑,即随着新的政策改革陷入停滞,一度支撑了世界经济的生产率增长可能会逐渐消失。

  A new concern Mr Rajan expressed while talking to the FT Financial Times, was that the productivity gains that have underpinned the world economy might peter out as fresh policy reforms stall.

  “我目前看到的情况,是政策改革的紧迫性还相当低,”他表示。

  “What I see now is the urgency for policy reform is rather muted,” he says.

  一种日益高涨的预测是,全球经济明年将出现衰退。对此拉詹并不认同。“风险是双方面的,”他表示。通胀和美国经济放缓是美国的风险。“关键问题是,经济放缓是否足以压制通胀压力,或是否需要进一步升息。”

  Mr Rajan disagrees with the growing voices predicting a recession next year. “The risks are two-sided,” he says. Inflation and a US slowdown are risks to the US. “The million-dollar question is whether the slowdown is enough to quell the inflationary pressure or whether you need more rate rises.”

  但在拉詹看来,最主要的问题仍是不断扩大的全球贸易失衡。它导致美国背负巨额贸易逆差,而中国、石油出口国和日本则相应获得了大量盈余。

  But the elephant in the room as far Mr Rajan is concerned is still the yawning global trade imbalances that result in a huge US trade deficit and correspondingly large surpluses in China, oil exporters and Japan.

  过去18个月中,国际货币资金组织曾警告说,无序解决这些失衡,会使美元大幅贬值、全球利率大幅上升和全球经济衰退,从而增加金融市场紊乱和保护主义再度抬头的风险。

  For the past 18 months, the fund has warned of a disorderly unwinding of these imbalances, involving a slump in the US dollar, much higher global interest rates and a global recession, risking chaos in financial markets and a resurgence of protectionism.  该组织呼吁,美国应减少预算赤字,欧洲和日本应加快内部经济改革,中国要推动国内消费并允许*屏蔽的关键字*进一步升值,其余亚洲国家应加大投资力度,以及“亚洲新兴经济体增加汇率弹性”,即委婉地敦促中国让*屏蔽的关键字*进一步升值。

  It has called on the US to reduce its budget deficit, Europe and Japan to speed domestic economic reforms, China to boost consumption and revalue the renminbi, and the rest of Asia to increase investment. and “greater exchange rate flexibility in emerging Asia”, a euphemism for Chinese revaluation of the renmimbi.

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